The Enrolment/ Cost-of-Living Paradox

Australian households are groaning under the weight of the cost-of-living crisis (often dubbed "cozzie livs" in shorthand): groceries, mortgages, petrol—all up. And yet, in 2024, independent schools added nearly 40,000 new students. That’s growth on a scale government schools can only dream of.

Over the last five years, independent school enrolments surged 18.5%, compared with a modest 1% rise in government schools.

Families are squeezed, but they’re not cutting here.

It’s counterintuitive, yet instructive: when budgets tighten, families tend to double down on what they believe matters most.

The Illusion of Safety

It would be easy for independent schools to interpret this growth as a sign of immunity. A kind of market validation that whatever they’re doing, it’s working.

But strategy isn’t about riding the current wave. It’s about asking what happens when the tide turns.

The truth is that 25% of parents now say fees significantly affect their household budget, and another quarter describe at least some negative impact. Grandparents are stepping in to help with school fees, which are rising at an alarming rate.

This isn’t an unshakable demand curve. It’s a stretch.

The Strategic Risks of Complacency

1. Growth can mask fragility. Full enrolment numbers make balance sheets look healthy, but financial stress at the household level is a lagging indicator waiting to catch up.
2. Silent resentment is real. Families are sacrificing in hidden ways to afford schooling. If schools fail to show empathy—or appear tone-deaf in their communication—resentment builds, even in times of full enrolment.
3. Not all boats are rising. High-demand schools may be bursting at the seams, but others are fighting harder for every student. Strategy here means proving value beyond facilities and brand polish.
4. The bubble risk. If households are stretching this far during #cozzielivs, what happens if interest rates stop declining—or rise further—or unemployment bites? Schools need scenario planning. What if fee income dropped 10% next year?

The Imperatives Hidden in the Boom

This paradox of growth amid pressure isn’t permission to relax. It’s an opportunity to act.

• Reframe value. Parents are cutting everywhere else but not here. Why? Schools need to articulate that story clearly: it’s not about buildings, it’s about outcomes and values.
• Diversify revenue. Over-reliance on tuition is brittle. Growing endowments, bursary funds, and external partnerships will strengthen resilience.
• Align resources. Rising enrolments can strain staff and facilities. Growth without investment corrodes quality—and quality is precisely why families are making sacrifices in the first place.
• Future-proof. Balance sheets may look strong now, so utilise that strength to invest in agility. This includes digital transformation, innovative models, and resilience planning. 

Historical Echoes: What We’ve Seen Before

This is not the first rodeo for #cosylivs to impact school enrolments.

Back in the early 1990s recession, many independent schools feared mass withdrawals. Yet, most held firm, with families choosing to stretch rather than exit. The GFC exhibited similar patterns where growth slowed, but there wasn’t a full collapse.  

These echoes suggest that education is often viewed as a non-negotiable, even when households cut spending elsewhere, such as on family holidays, eating out, and lavish gifts for their children.

The lesson for today’s leaders is that enrolment resilience isn’t accidental. Schools that maintained trust, communicated value, and offered flexible arrangements weathered the storm better than those who assumed loyalty would carry them through.

The Psychology of Parental Choice

Why do parents sacrifice so deeply?

Behavioural economics suggests education is viewed less as a cost and more as an identity-shaping investment. Independent schools are perceived to provide safety, networks, moral or faith alignment, and a competitive edge for the future.

Even under #cozzielivs pressure, these drivers remain powerful.

For leaders, the strategic challenge is to amplify this narrative with authenticity—demonstrating how the school’s outcomes, culture, and care justify the sacrifices families continue to make.

The Hidden Pressure on Staff

While enrolments surge, staff capacity does not automatically expand. More students can mean fuller classes, stretched timetables, and added pastoral demands.

Middle leaders often bear the brunt, balancing expectations of delivery with fewer resources. Strategy here isn’t just about growth—it’s about sustainability.

Schools that invest in teacher wellbeing, leadership pipelines, and workload management will protect the very quality that makes families commit to fees in the first place.

Neglecting the increased pressure placed on staff may come back to haunt you.

Signals in the Market

While some schools are benefitting greatly, not all schools are experiencing the same surge.

High-demand city schools may have extended waiting lists, while some mid-tier or regional schools struggle to maintain their current enrolment numbers.

Fee strategies also vary.

Some schools push through increases with confidence in their brand, while others lean into scholarships and bursaries to attract or retain families. These signals reveal an uneven landscape.

Strategic clarity requires knowing which segment your school sits in and aligning actions accordingly.

Looking 10 Years Ahead

If today’s paradox continues, schools may face ongoing demand even under financial strain—requiring smarter funding and greater capacity.

If the paradox shifts, schools could experience sudden enrollment contractions, straining budgets overnight.

Leaders need scenario planning that considers both extremes: what if demand continues to rise beyond current capacity? What if it falls sharply?

Schools that rehearse these futures now will be steadier when turbulence arrives.

Tactical First Moves for Battling Schools

For schools already struggling with declining enrolments, here are 10 immediate actions they can start now.

These are not a replacement for a strategic rethink. Instead, they’re tactical moves to steady the ship while long-term strategy work takes shape:

1. Understand your school community’s pain points with engaging focus groups.
2. Refresh communication around value. Highlight your brand through the unique offerings you provide.
3. Introduce flexible fee payment plans – offering weekly payment options may be the tonic that some parents need.
4. Launch targeted scholarship or bursary campaigns to retain vulnerable families.
5. Strengthen community engagement: events, open days, and visibility in local media.
6. Sharpen digital presence: website clarity, enrolment pathways, social media storytelling.
7. Review and adapt curriculum offerings to differentiate from competitors.
8. Upskill admissions staff in proactive relationship-building and follow-up.
9. Partner with alumni networks to support marketing and mentoring programs.
10. Run quick financial stress tests to ensure resilience while stabilising enrolments.

The Counter-Intuitive Truth

Enrolment growth during #cozzielivs isn’t proof schools are untouchable.

It’s proof they’re indispensable.

That indispensability brings both privilege and responsibility. Independent schools are being chosen despite the squeeze, which is precisely why leaders must bank the goodwill now and build models that can withstand the day when families finally say, “enough.”

The strategy question isn’t whether demand is here today. It’s whether schools are ready for tomorrow when the turbulence hits full force.